The Kremlin's fear mongering in Central Asia is a method of asserting military and political control and to avoid dealing with problems at home, according to local analysts.
This was most recently confirmed by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov's visits to Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan this month.
Security issues were at the top of the agenda. While Kyrgyz authorities did not disclose the topics of discussion, the potential opening of a second Russian military base in southern Kyrgyzstan was rumored to be one of the key issues, local media reported.
The Russian presence in Kyrgyzstan includes a military airfield that opened in 2003 in Kant, 22km from Bishkek, and a torpedo testing site on Lake Issyk-Kul that began operation in 1943.
The prospect of a second base had already been brought up.
Lavrov declared Moscow's readiness to discuss the opening of a second military base during a lecture February 4 in Bishkek on relations between Russia and Kyrgyzstan.
Meanwhile, Moscow already began building up its military bases in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan starting a year ago.
The bases were being strengthened "in connection with threats emanating from Afghanistan", Alexander Sternik, Russian Foreign Ministry representative to the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), told RIA Novosti in February 2018.
Russia uses fear of external threats to strengthen its position in Central Asia and avoid dealing with domestic problems, say local analysts.
Russian authorities are appealing to nationalists to defend Russia "from an external enemy", Seitek Kachkynbayev, a Bishkek-based political analyst and chairman of Kyrgyzstan's Democratic Party, told Caravanserai.
The opening of new military bases abroad to purportedly protect the interests of Russia, including the potential base in Kyrgyzstan, is meant to divert public attention from the nation's internal crises, he said.
"A lot of problems have accumulated," said Kachkynbayev. "Public support of the Russian government is decreasing" because of corruption, major capital flight, falling oil prices and a 2018 increase to the retirement age.
Moscow has ways to coerce Kyrgyzstan into serving Russian interests, he said.
About a million, or one sixth of all Kyrgyz citizens, are working in Russia and more than half of them have received Russian citizenship, said Kachkynbayev, citing unofficial data.
"The overwhelming majority of Kyrgyz citizens who have received Russian citizenship come from the south," said Kachkynbayev. "Rumours are circulating that in a critical situation, the Kremlin, by using them, could push for ... a referendum on having [the southern provinces of Kyrgyzstan] join Russia."
Meanwhile, an even broader military Russian presence in Kyrgyzstan is controversial in light of Kyrgyz national security and will also create obstacles for economic development, according to Kachkynbayev.
For example, it would prevent Bishkek from implementing key transport projects, such as a future, strategic railway line between Bishkek and Beijing. The railway could connect Kyrgyzstan economically not only with China but also with other countries, he said.
"Kyrgyz authorities are trying to be pragmatic in order neither to harm national interests nor to offend the Kremlin. However, it is important that Kyrgyz pragmatism in the long term serves the national interests of our country," Kachkynbayev said.
Military bases as a coercion tool
Russian military bases serve as a tool for maintaining Russia's political influence in Central Asia, Nodar Kharshiladze, a Tbilisi-based political scientist and founder of the Georgian Strategic Analysis Centre, told Caravanserai.
"If a threat arises to its interests in Central Asia, Russia can use the military bases to maintain its control over Central Asia," Kharshiladze said.
"In such scenarios, the Kremlin does not resort to open aggression but employs unconventional and mixed tools, such as covert operations, sabotage and incitement of ethnic tension with the help of modern information technologies," added Kharshiladze.
Central Asian countries are becoming even more vulnerable to Russian pressure because Moscow has key information about local militaries, he said.
Since Russia conducts joint military exercises with certain regional countries, it has valuable information about the combat and operational capabilities of local armed forces, which would give Russia an additional advantage in the event of a local war, said Kharshiladze.
"Local political elites are aware of this and are forced to take into account the interests of the Kremlin when making key decisions since they see a serious threat from Russia, especially after the annexation of Crimea," he said.
Creating imaginary threats
To maintain existing bases and to push the case for more, Russia is using the geopolitical situation to frighten Central Asia and to justify its presence on the territory of its allies.
A third world war involving Central Asia is inevitable, Marianna Kochubey, a Russian police colonel and chairwoman of the Scientific Advisory Board at the CIS Anti-Terrorism Centre, claimed last November in Yekaterinburg, Russia, during a conference on extremism.
The conflict will begin in the South China Sea between China and the United States and then spread to Central Asia and the Caspian Sea region, where radical Islamist forces will begin hostilities, predicted Kochubey.
"There are challenges ahead for us [Russians], and even bigger challenges for our brothers -- Uzbeks, Kazakhs and Tajiks," Kochubey claimed.
Central Asian analysts cast serious doubt on these claims, and say that Russia is just trying to preserve military ties.
Recent events show that world powers can "find compromises, make concessions and reach agreements", reducing the likelihood of global war, Islam Kurayev, an Almaty-based political analyst, told the Kazakh newspaper Caravan last November.
Moscow is trying to convince Central Asian countries that the threat of war exists to further strengthen military co-operation with Russia, according to Kurayev.
"Moscow clearly understands that the countries of Central Asia are gradually withdrawing from its influence because society in these countries is ready to build its own foreign policy. In that regard, it is advantageous to create an imaginary danger in the form of terrorists or the threat of a new war," Kurayev said.
"I think they will continue to pump up this theme," he added.
You can't help feeling surprised while reading this... People are so obsessed with the "false patriotism" and hatred toward whatever is Russian! A local Kyrgyz parliamentary proposed giving some regions of Kyrgyzstan away to be governed (developed) by other countries, including Russia. By this proposal he admitted to the obvious fact they are essentially unable to do anything and developing Kyrgyzstan is up to other countries!!! Akylbek Zhaparov of the Kyrgyz parliament proposed to divide Kyrgyz provinces between developed countries, "Azattyk" reports. So what? Was he declared a rebel and a traitor? No, not a word... But had a Russian said something like that, he would have been called a Nazi separatist. That's the essence of hypocrisy in these countries! Millions of migrants are flooding Russia asking for citizenship as such articles inciting hatred towards Russians are published! You should differentiate between the regime in Russia and the [Russian] people. They need neither Caucasus nor Asia... They just want to live and raise their children!Reply
This is indeed OUR country, my dear Russian friend! What do you think would happen if a Kyrgyz came to Russia and urged your country to return the Karelian Isthmus to Finland? What would Russians think of him? So, in our country we can discuss whatever is necessary to protect our borders from the treasonous and oligarchic Russia. Kyrgyzstan is a proto-democracy. And we spilled our blood for this Democracy outside our White House in 2010. You Russians have been and are sitting still under [the regime] of your Putin. If I were to choose between Russia and the USA I would chose the latter.Reply
Russia makes a lot of money selling weapons. If there's no tension and war, there will be no weapon salesReply
Come on, everyone realizes this secret move of the Kremlin already :)) The major threat is the Kremlin and its gangReply
There are so many pro-Russian commentators here... Are they Russians? I am from Kazakhstan. The article is absolutely accurate. I don't know what Russia conjures up in other countries, but here they are promoting the image of China as our enemy. Although we all know China would not attack us, because the union with the USA has more advantages for them than Central Asia.Reply
The author is right. Do you believe they are expanding their bases for Kyrgyzstan's good, really? You are so naive, people. It's not like everybody is familiar with geopolitics, at least many folks commenting here are not. It is all about the Russian interests and nothing else! And what does it have to do with Americans, damn it???Reply
Yes, my friend, I also have no idea what this has to do with Americans. Russians see American "ghosts" everywhereReply
Dear disrespected Shitserai, why does the USA poke its nose everywhere and keep its military bases around the globe? You'd better write something about Nowruz, spring is coming :)))Reply
What baloney. What does the author smoke? That's just horrendous. A mentally healthy person can't have such thoughts.Reply
Yeah fella, you've got cast-iron arguments, that's for sureReply
Russia doesn't want to lose its slaves - Tajiks, Uzbeks, Kyrgyz etc... Russia is confronted by the whole world except for these former colonies of the Russian EmpireReply
It's already a well-known fact that Russia sponsors ISIL and other terrorist groups like Hezbollah. Bitch KremlinReply
Exactly. Not only do they support Asad, the tyrant with blood on his hands, but they also help South American dictators. Putin's Russia is the enemy of democracyReply
Why is this site so hateful towards Russia? This site should have been called Shitserai. Why these provocations? What if a war starts, ISIL and other scumbags are crawling in, who would protect you? Yanks? I doubt the Yanks need it. And come on, stop dragging Russia through the dirt. Fraternity of peoples that's what most important now. And not let all this scum like ISIL into [our country].Reply
[You] didn't try to justify Russia's actions. Well, if you want to do it so much, give some facts at least!Reply
Russia is the major threat to the countries of Central AsiaReply
Good point. Russia is the major threat to the independence of Kyrgyzstan.Reply
It goes without saying we need foreign policy protecting our national interests. This is a priority! At the same time, what are our national interests? The security and independence of our country; prosperity of Kyrgyz citizens, and for our republic to economically develop and thrive. Unfortunately, we don't have all of it yet. We need friendly countries and partner countries in order to achieve that. I believe, Russia is our most important friend and partner.Reply
Do you know what this "great and mighty" Russia has done to Ukraine by violating the treaty on Ukrainian territorial integrity? Russia has done that to their so-called "blood brothers," their eternal ally Ukraine.Reply
And what would preclude them from violating our territorial integrity? What would prevent them from installing here a puppet separatist government like they did in Georgia?