KABUL -- China has initiated a dangerous strategy aimed at making Afghanistan economically and politically dependent on Beijing so that it can exploit the nation's mineral reserves and counter any potential threat from Uighur separatists, say analysts.
Afghanistan's resources include bauxite, copper, iron ore, lithium and rare earth elements, according to a January 2021 report by the US Geological Survey (USGS).
Afghanistan is also home to rare earth elements that are used in the clean energy sector: neodymium, praseodymium and dysprosium.
The country's untapped mineral riches have been estimated at $1 trillion by the USGS, though Afghan officials have estimated the value to be three times higher.
Chinese companies have already expressed interest in investing in Afghanistan's mining sector since the fall of the previous Afghan government in August.
"China has started a dangerous game in Afghanistan," said Tamim Nuristani, the former governor of Nuristan and a US-based political analyst.
"China's policy has always been to support countries with generous packages through different channels, including providing loans," said Nuristani.
"After countries fail to repay the loans, China uses its leverage to pressure those borrowing governments to give it access to each country's natural and mineral resources."
"We have seen examples of Chinese government manipulation in several countries in Africa and Latin America," Nuristani noted.
"China is pursuing the same political goal by providing humanitarian aid and millions of dollars in financial assistance to Afghanistan. By doing so, China wants to make the government in Kabul dependent on its political support and, with such a trick, take control of our country's mines and natural resources," he said.
"By exerting its dominance over Afghanistan, China plans to build an economic and political corridor through Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iran, Central Asia and the Middle East," Nuristani said.
Just weeks after the fall of the previous government, China pledged $31 million in immediate aid to Afghanistan.
The pledges proved to be hollow.
Later, China announced it had provided only $1 million in humanitarian aid and pledged $5 million in food and medical assistance to Afghanistan.
"China is pursuing several goals in Afghanistan and intends to exploit minerals and other raw materials. In order to achieve its objectives, China is pledging millions of dollars in aid to Afghanistan," said Ahmad Saeedi, an Afghan political analyst based in Uzbekistan.
"China is trying to build an allied government in Afghanistan that will remain dependent on its resources ... so that [China] can openly invest in and exploit Afghanistan's minerals and also ... easily export Chinese goods to Afghanistan, Central Asia and other countries," Saeedi said.
"China's other goal is to support the establishment of an anti-American and anti-Indian government in Afghanistan," he added.
"China is seeking a monopoly over investment and trade throughout the region," said Sayed Masoud, an Afghan economic analyst based in Turkmenistan.
"It has some degree of influence over the markets in Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kazakhstan. It has invested billions of dollars in the port of Gwadar [in Pakistan] to reach ocean waters, and the country is trying to access Afghanistan's mineral resources," he noted, referring to the Indian Ocean and Arabian Sea.
"China is eyeing Afghanistan's rare earth elements," said Kabul-based political analyst Salim Paigir.
"Our country has billions of dollars' worth of natural resources. By pledging millions of dollars in assistance, China is trying to acquire Afghanistan's untapped natural assets," he said.
"China aims to achieve its own economic interests rather than improving Afghanistan's economic situation."
"China took advantage of the withdrawal of international troops from Afghanistan as an opportunity to promote its political, economic and security dominance in Afghanistan," Paigir added.