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Diplomacy

Fake attack video shows extent of Kremlin subterfuge to instigate war in Ukraine

By Caravanserai and AFP

A woman cries near the body of her son, killed during a shelling in Tekstilshik district, Donetsk region, Ukraine, on February 4, 2015. The Kremlin is plotting to 'produce a very graphic propaganda video, which would include corpses and actors that would be depicting mourners and images of destroyed locations,' the US military said. [Dominique Faget/AFP]

A woman cries near the body of her son, killed during a shelling in Tekstilshik district, Donetsk region, Ukraine, on February 4, 2015. The Kremlin is plotting to 'produce a very graphic propaganda video, which would include corpses and actors that would be depicting mourners and images of destroyed locations,' the US military said. [Dominique Faget/AFP]

KYIV, Ukraine -- US officials say they have evidence of a plan by Moscow to film a fake Ukrainian attack on Russians to justify a real assault on Ukraine.

"We do have information that the Russians are likely to want to fabricate a pretext for an invasion," Pentagon spokesperson John Kirby said Thursday.

Washington has found that the Russian government plans to stage a supposed attack by the Ukrainian military or intelligence forces "against Russian sovereign territory, or against Russian speaking people", he told reporters.

The latter could refer to the sizeable Russian-speaking population inside Ukraine.

Russian troops drill near the Ukrainian border January 29. [Russian Defence Ministry]

Russian troops drill near the Ukrainian border January 29. [Russian Defence Ministry]

A Ukrainian serviceman gestures in a trench on the frontline with the Russia-backed separatists near Avdiivka, Donetsk region, on February 3. [Anatolii Stepanov/AFP]

A Ukrainian serviceman gestures in a trench on the frontline with the Russia-backed separatists near Avdiivka, Donetsk region, on February 3. [Anatolii Stepanov/AFP]

"As part of this fake attack, we believe that Russia would produce a very graphic propaganda video, which would include corpses and actors that would be depicting mourners and images of destroyed locations," he said.

That could allow Moscow, which has amassed more than 100,000 troops and heavy offensive arms on Ukraine's border, with an excuse for invading.

Part of the plan would be to make the Ukrainian military equipment used in it appear to be supplied by the West, Kirby said, further justifying Russian reprisals against Ukraine.

"We've seen these kinds of activity by the Russians in the past, and we believe it's important when we see it like this that we can call it out," he said.

"Our experience is that very little of this nature is not approved at the highest levels of the Russian government," Kirby said about the plan.

'Unprovoked aggression'

The plan is "one of a number of options that the Russian government is developing as a fake pretext to initiate and potentially justify military aggression against Ukraine", said US State Department spokesperson Ned Price.

"Russia has signalled it's willing to continue diplomatic talks as a means to de-escalate, but actions such as these suggests otherwise," Price said, adding that US intelligence agencies do not know if Moscow has decided to go through with the plan.

Neither Kirby nor Price provided details on the alleged plan or the evidence in possession of US intelligence.

British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss called the US claim of Moscow's false flag operations "clear and shocking evidence of Russia's unprovoked aggression and underhand activity to destabilise Ukraine".

"The only way forward is for Russia to de-escalate, desist and commit to a diplomatic pathway," she said in a tweeted statement.

The Kremlin denied the accusations, just as it has denied it has plans to invade Ukraine.

Western powers have been engaged in intense diplomatic efforts -- coupled with the threat of sanctions against Russian President Vladimir Putin's inner circle -- to deter what they fear to be a looming invasion of Ukraine, despite strenuous denials from Moscow.

Russia has demanded wide-ranging security guarantees from the West, including that Ukraine never be allowed to join NATO.

The Kremlin also wants NATO and the United States to foreswear the deployment of missile systems near Russia's borders and to pull back NATO forces in Eastern Europe.

Hybrid war

Deception is a familiar part of the Kremlin's toolbox in undermining countries. Instead of sending in troops every time, it often "softens the target" with disinformation and hacking.

European politicians and analysts warned last year that nations must enhance their knowledge of Russia's hybrid warfare strategy as a way to counter exactly what is playing out in Ukraine.

Russia's hybrid warfare strategy is made up of five key areas, according to Olena Carbou, the co-founder and executive director of the Ukrainian Think Tanks Liaison Office in Brussels.

It uses economic, energy, political and militaristic pressure, accompanied by disinformation or information warfare, she said last year.

"Ukraine and Georgia became the beachheads of this war," she said.

In countries where Russia is waging a hybrid war, each of the instruments is constantly present with varying degrees of prominence, Carbou explained.

"If we're talking about political influence, it's support for pro-Russian political forces. It's destabilisation of the political structure and interference in the electoral process," she said.

"The danger of hybrid war is that the aggressor exploits weaknesses," Carbou said. "The state must become stronger. It must make its state institutions stronger, eliminate corruption [and] increase the public's information literacy."

No surprise

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba Friday hailed Western support for his country amid increasing Russian aggression.

Kuleba said the alleged plan was no "surprise".

"Since 2014, we have seen many insidious actions by the Russian Federation; we have seen that they stop at nothing when they try to fabricate and blame Ukraine," the minister said.

"It is very important that any plans, any intentions of Russia are brought to light and we manage to wreck them," he said.

Russia seized the Crimean peninsula from Kyiv in 2014 and has fuelled a simmering separatist conflict in the east of the country that has claimed more than 13,000 lives since then.

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13 Comment(s)

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Ukraine has the right to get back not only Crimea but Kuban because historically, that was Ukrainian land illegally occupied by Russia.

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The Donetsk People's Republic is part of Ukraine.

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Who brainwashed Russians to believe they were a superpower? They can't be a superpower when pensioners get $250 [per month] and dumpster dive.

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Putin signed a treaty in China on transferring a vital piece of land to China. Interestingly, readers began to comment about Russia returning lands to China. They would like to see Khabarovsk, Vladivostok, and Amur in China! These are historically Chinese lands.

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German Defence Minister Christine Lambrecht refused to send weapons to Kyiv, saying the dialogue to resolve the conflict in Ukraine is still underway.

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They say Russia has gotten up from its knees. But its belly is still dragging on the ground.

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Surprising news from Ukraine which is very lacking in logic and common sense. Ukies plan to disconnect themselves from the Russian energy networks for 72 hours in February, performing a test to connect to the Western European energy system early next year. One kWh in Germany is 0.3 Euro, and it is about the same in other EU countries. The Russian price is slightly more than three rubles/ kWh, or at the current exchange rate 0.038 Euro; it's ten times less. Ukraine has the same price now. Question: what the fuck? Fucking morons!

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During his visit to China in 2004, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a document giving away part of Ussuriisky Island and Tarabarov Island to China. The CPR will get 337 square kilometres of former Russian territory.

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Ukraine will be among the first to recognize the Far East as Chinese territory.

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The baseless sudden Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2021-23 will take its place along with the famous North Kosovo secession referendum by Obama.

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Russia is like a cursed cow with short horns.

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The Ukie Armed Forces headquarters sheepishly reported that Ukraine never developed plans to send Ukrainian killers into the breakaway Donbas republics. At the same time, the battles for Izvarinsk, Ilovaysk, and Debaltseve are just a propaganda ploy by Russians.

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What else can one expect from fascist Russia? It should be disintegrated territorially.

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