Caravanserai
Analysis

Kremlin offers 'aid' to Ukrainians it forcibly displaced

By Olha Chepil

Ukrainians who temporarily left their country amid Russian bombing board a train at the railway station in Lviv, Ukraine, in June to return to their hometowns. [IOM]

Ukrainians who temporarily left their country amid Russian bombing board a train at the railway station in Lviv, Ukraine, in June to return to their hometowns. [IOM]

KYIV -- Recent Russian decrees offering "aid" to Ukrainians in areas under its control -- including those who were forcibly transferred -- are just yet another Kremlin propaganda effort, analysts say.

Russian media reported in mid-August that more than 3.4 million Ukrainians had entered Russia from Ukraine, including 555,000 children, according to Human Rights Watch (HRW).

But many of the Ukrainians in Russia did not go voluntarily following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in late February.

Rather, they "were displaced and transported in a manner and context that makes them illegal forcible transfers", HRW said in a report released last Thursday (September 1).

Firefighters extinguish a fire after an apartment was hit by a missile strike in Kharkiv, Ukraine, on September 6, amid the Russian invasion of that country. [Sergey Bobok/AFP]

Firefighters extinguish a fire after an apartment was hit by a missile strike in Kharkiv, Ukraine, on September 6, amid the Russian invasion of that country. [Sergey Bobok/AFP]

A woman sits inside a bunker in Kramatorsk, Donetsk region, Ukraine, on September 6. According to local authorities, gas supplies in the region have been suspended because of heavy shelling. [Juan Barreto/AFP]

A woman sits inside a bunker in Kramatorsk, Donetsk region, Ukraine, on September 6. According to local authorities, gas supplies in the region have been suspended because of heavy shelling. [Juan Barreto/AFP]

Forced transfers "are a serious violation of the laws of war amounting to war crimes and a potential crime against humanity", it said.

In an attempt to convince the public otherwise, Russian President Vladimir Putin in a decree posted on the Kremlin's website on August 27 ordered the payment of monthly and one-time social benefits to retirees, people with disabilities, pregnant women and other vulnerable individuals who left Ukraine or its separatist territories because of the war.

Under the decree, Ukrainians in Russia will be able to receive monthly pension payments of 10,000 RUB (about $165).

It also stipulates payments to people with disabilities, single parents, retirees older than 80, and World War II veterans.

Another decree issued by Putin August 27 allows Ukrainian passport holders who arrived in Russia after February 24 to live and work in the country indefinitely.

The law previously said that Ukrainians could not stay longer than 90 days.

Death and destruction

The decrees are just a farce and a propaganda scheme, observers say.

"The beautiful life and wonderful conditions they [officials] are promising are just fabrications. In reality, all Moscow delivers is death, loss and destruction," said Yuliia Pavytska, an analyst at the Kyiv School of Economics.

"The most interesting thing about [the decree] is that Putin says 'pay' but then orders the government to find the funds and determine the exact procedures to pay them out," she said.

"After all, the Russian budget doesn't currently have a 'social benefits for Ukrainian refugees' line item. Where are they going to get this money from? That's the big question," Pavytska said.

"Holes" have appeared in the Russian budget as all the money is going to the defence industry, said Pavytska, a specialist on the Russian economy.

"They're are trying to show that the sanctions aren't working and that everything is fine there," she said, referring to sanctions imposed by the global community as punishment for Russia's invasion of Ukraine. "But they actually are having an effect. Russians are getting poorer."

"An embargo of [Russian] oil is set to begin in 2023, and that will further exacerbate the drop in income going into the budget. The government has already cut spending on health care and environmental protection by 30%," Pavytska added.

"One out of seven residents in Russia is on the brink of poverty. Russia can't help its own population, but here it is paying those who were taken out of Ukraine."

"This looks like pure propaganda, a lie thought up to advance Russia’s own objectives," she said.

The Kremlin's main goal is to keep Ukrainians in Russia by any means, according to Oleksandr Solontai of Kyiv, director of the practical policy programme at the Institute of Political Education.

"The Russian troops in Ukraine aren't advancing, so there's no one left to remove," he said. "Meanwhile, those whom they forcibly brought in earlier are fleeing Russia through the Baltics, Finland and Georgia. They [the Ukrainians] know that the EU [European Union] has different conditions and a different, decent, free life."

The war and resulting economic downturn have pushed entire regions in Russia into depression and they are seeing a decline in population growth, Solontai said.

Consequently, a demographic crisis is starting in the country.

"Putin sees himself as the great tsar of an empire, but his entire ideology is crumbling" Solontai said.

"He's therefore trying to do something to stop the demographic crisis. He's giving passports [namely, Russian ID cards] to Ukrainian citizens with one hand, while with the other, he's using money to try to keep them there, so the Ukrainians will stay in Russia."

"But that's a very awkward strategy," he said.

'A desperate move'

The recent decree allowing Ukrainians to stay in Russia indefinitely is particularly troublesome because of the requirements for doing so, say observers.

"This list raises a red flag. You need to be fingerprinted and photographed and be tested for infectious diseases," said Alyona Luneva of Kyiv, advocacy manager of the ZMINA Human Rights Centre. "Those are very dangerous conditions because they call to mind what is happening in the filtration camps the Kremlin is creating in the occupied territories."

"This is actually being done so Russia has records [on them] and gains access to their information. The final goal is anyone's guess," she said.

"Undergoing medical tests and giving fingerprints in Russia are a major risk. Staying in Russia at all is dangerous because you don't know when they [authorities] will come for you," she said.

"I don't think anyone will be lining up for those passports," said Luneva, who provides legal and advocacy help to Ukrainians whom the Russians brought to Russia against their will.

The majority of the Ukrainians who were compelled to flee Ukraine or were brought forcibly to Russia fled to Europe long ago or were able to go home. They used Russia only as a staging ground to save their own lives, she said.

The Ukrainian arrivals "began going home long ago even though they [their hometowns] are now in occupied territory", she added. "About 20,000 residents of Mariupol had returned to their city by the middle of the summer."

"The rest of the deported Ukrainians left Russia through Estonia, Georgia and Finland ... Moscow hasn't given any aid," Luneva said.

"We don't know the exact information, and there are no tools to determine the numbers, but we're seeing that the number of temporary way stations is declining, which means that the number of [arriving Ukrainians] is also declining," she said.

"So these decrees by Putin are a desperate move. It demonstrates that Ukrainians are leaving Russia," she said. "Most likely, so many of them have already left that [Russia] is willing to pay the last ones who have remained."

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