Missile strikes on Ukrainian cities signal growing desperation of Russian forces

KYIV -- Russia's missile strikes against cities in Ukraine this week are a sign of its growing inability to fight on the frontlines, say world leaders and analysts.

Russia followed up Monday's missile launches on Kyiv and Lviv with further aerial attacks on Tuesday (October 11).

Officials in Ukraine's western region of Lviv said at least three Russian missiles fired Tuesday targeted energy infrastructure, forcing Kyiv to ask people to cut their electricity usage and switch off appliances at night.

In the city of Lviv, the largest city in the region of the same name, the mayor said that one-third of homes were without power.

On Monday, Russian missiles hit the capital Kyiv for the first time in months.

The Ukrainian Defence Ministry said Monday that Russia had fired 83 missiles at Ukraine, of which its air defences shot down 52. Forty-three of those were cruise missiles.

Ukraine said 19 people died and more than 100 were wounded in the strikes, while the United Nations said Russia's bombardment may have violated the laws of war.

Monday's mass barrage came in apparent retaliation for an explosion at the weekend that damaged a key bridge linking Russia to Crimea, a peninsula Moscow annexed from Ukraine in 2014.

Kyiv's forces have in recent weeks been pushing back against Russian soldiers across the front lines in the south and in the east.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Friday his troops had recaptured nearly 2,500 sq km in the counter-offensive that began late last month.

'Betting on terror'

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said the strikes showed Moscow was "desperate" after a spate of embarrassing military setbacks, a sentiment echoed by NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg who said they were "a sign of weakness".

Stoltenberg on Tuesday said Russia was striking Ukraine's infrastructure to make up for battlefield losses by its troops and vowed allies would "step up and sustain" support for Kyiv.

"I think what we saw yesterday is actually a sign of weakness, because the reality is that they are not able to make progress on the battlefield," Stoltenberg said on the eve of a meeting of NATO defence ministers. "Russia is actually losing on the battlefield."

"So the way they're able to respond is by indiscriminate attacks on Ukrainian cities, hitting civilians, critical infrastructure."

Military analysts point to Gen. Sergey Surovikin, who was appointed the new commander of Russian forces in Ukraine on October 8, as being behind the recent strikes.

Surovikin previously commanded Russia's Aerospace Forces in Syria, where he was known for brutal tactics, including strikes on civilian targets and the use of chemical weapons.

"Surovikin is someone devoid of any principles. He is responsible for criminal cases, cruelty in Syria," said Serhiy Kuzan, director and co-founder of the Ukrainian Centre for Security and Co-operation.

"They [the Russians] keep betting on terror. And they are using their army not for a fair fight, but as a terrorist organisation," he said.

"They terrorise civilian facilities, power plants. They knocked out heat, light and electricity in order to create a social crisis in Ukraine, so that people are freezing, cold and hungry, [and] pressure the authorities and ask them to negotiate."

"They see that they are not achieving their objectives in the war, and their missile attacks are also not effective," Kuzan said. "Ukrainian air defences have learned to shoot down their missiles, which is why the Russians decided on a massive bombardment in order to overload Ukrainian air defences."

"The widespread strikes on every city are, above all, retaliation for the Crimean Bridge," said Ihor Reiterovych, a political scientist and programme director at the Ukrainian Centre for Social Development.

"Surovikin proposed this cruel tactic to Putin, and Putin gleefully picked it up because he needs to satisfy the groups in his circle that have already begun to turn away from him."

"Putin really wants to show that he is prepared to go the distance and even violate the rules of war," Reiterovych said.

"The chair under him is wobbly and he needs to take steps to shore up the people around him. But I think for many it had the exact opposite effect. They have realised that he is dragging himself and them into a grave," he said.

'A display of impotence'

If anything, the recent strikes have steeled the resolve of Ukraine and its allies, observers say.

Western allies have been scrambling to work out how to supply more advanced systems to Ukraine.

A first Iris-T medium-range system has arrived in Ukraine after Germany decided to ship it before even giving it to its own troops.

The United States has also said it is looking to expedite the delivery of its NASAMS anti-missile and anti-drone system to Kyiv, and the first of two batches is expected in the coming weeks.

"It may seem to Russians that they are using new tactics, but in reality these are all the same methods that Russia has already employed," said Ihor Petrenko, a political scientist at the International Centre for Policy Studies in Kyiv.

"As is often the case with the Russians, what they ended up with is not what they planned for. They fired more than 80 missiles, but more than half of them were shot down."

"Obviously, they wanted to inflict widespread damage, causing fear and panic," he said. "But apart from stoking more hatred, they achieved nothing. All in all, this is a display of the impotence and weakness of Russia and Putin."

'Donations for revenge'

In response to the missile strike, Ukrainians have stepped up efforts to support the Ukrainian army.

For example, Serhiy Prytula, a Ukrainian public figure and civic leader, on Monday announced a fundraising campaign to buy new Ukrainian-made kamikaze drones.

"Friends, we're collecting donations for revenge!!! Serhii Sternenko [a Ukrainian social activist and lawyer] and I intended to launch this fundraiser on October 12, but the bunker monster had his own plans. We're starting now!" Prytula wrote on his Telegram channel.

In less than an hour, the campaign raised 10 million UAH ($270,000).

"Russians simply don't realise their behaviour is primitive and cannot understand the courage of Ukrainians and their willingness to endure any hardships just to be free and without Russians," said Petrenko.

"Neither Surovikin's arrival nor the arrival of anyone else will save the Kremlin from defeat," he said.