Caravanserai
Security

Kazakhstan revamps military doctrine in face of rising threats from Russia

By Kanat Altynbayev

Kazakh paratroopers take part in the Rubezh-2022 exercise on October 22. Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev last week approved a package of amendments to the country's Military Doctrine. [Kazakh Defence Ministry]

Kazakh paratroopers take part in the Rubezh-2022 exercise on October 22. Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev last week approved a package of amendments to the country's Military Doctrine. [Kazakh Defence Ministry]

ALMATY -- The Kazakh government has introduced an extensive set of amendments to its military doctrine, many of which were developed in response to growing threats to national security posed by Russia, analysts say.

Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev approved the amendments, the Ministry of Defence announced on October 24.

"The new version of the Military Doctrine enables the state to adapt its views on guaranteeing military security and defence to modern needs and conditions, and it raises the country's military potential so it will be able to respond appropriately to new threats and risks," the ministry said in a statement.

In providing the rationale for updating the document, the ministry referred to Tokayev's message last year to the country, in which he "announced the need to reset the Military Doctrine".

Kazakhstan's new military doctrine stresses guarding and protecting borders, and in particular, 'equipping the Border and Aviation Services ... with modern weapons and military equipment, and technical means of border protection;'. Troops take part in the Rubezh-2022 exercise on October 22. [Kazakh Defence Ministry]

Kazakhstan's new military doctrine stresses guarding and protecting borders, and in particular, 'equipping the Border and Aviation Services ... with modern weapons and military equipment, and technical means of border protection;'. Troops take part in the Rubezh-2022 exercise on October 22. [Kazakh Defence Ministry]

One important provision of the new Military Doctrine is the introduction of reservists to Kazakhstan's military service system. Kazakh solderis participate in the Rubezh-2022 exercise on October 22. [Kazakh Defence Ministry]

One important provision of the new Military Doctrine is the introduction of reservists to Kazakhstan's military service system. Kazakh solderis participate in the Rubezh-2022 exercise on October 22. [Kazakh Defence Ministry]

Tokayev in his message issued an order to "restructure the armed forces, other troops and military units", saying that these tasks are "nationally significant priorities".

"With such an unpredictable and aggressive neighbour, threats to Kazakhstan's national security have become more tangible than ever," said Ruslan Nazarov, an international relations analyst in Astana, referring to Russia and its invasion of Ukraine.

"Many amendments to the military doctrine clearly reflect lessons learned from the war in Ukraine," he said.

For example, among the main military threats to Kazakhstan, the updated military doctrine now lists "an increase in the volume of weapons of mass destruction in the world", a potential reference to the Kremlin's repeated threats to use nuclear weapons.

The document pays attention to Russia's active use of hybrid war tactics, which include not only traditional combined arms but modern information tools as well -- namely, cyberattacks and propaganda, Nazarov noted.

The doctrine highlights the threat of "[cyberattacks] on the ... military's information systems and on systems for ensuring the daily functioning of the country, with the goal of destabilising the state and reducing its military and military-economic potential".

It also recognises the danger of information attacks.

"There may be increased activity in the media space aimed at creating negative coverage about the state in the global arena," it says.

Border protection

The new military doctrine stresses the protection of Kazakhstan's borders, and in particular, "equipping the Border and Aviation services ... with modern weapons and military equipment, and technical means of border protection".

The "efficiency of the co-operation of the Border Service" with other government agencies and with residents of the border districts, including "in the underwater environment of the Kazakh sector of the Caspian Sea", is to be reinforced.

Kazakhstan's longest border is with Russia, and at more than 7,600km, it is the longest continuous land border in the world. Russia also borders Kazakhstan across the Caspian Sea.

The amendments to the military doctrine address territorial defence.

Under the updated doctrine, the government will bolster the protection of strategic facilities against terrorist acts and sabotage by building new infrastructure and by providing territorial forces with modern weapons and military equipment.

One notable point is that the new document notes the threat of "separatist activity".

"We can no longer hide the potential threat of separatism," said Nazarov.

"We've been raising the problem of the influence of Kremlin propaganda on Kazakhs for many years, especially on those who live in the country's northern regions that border Russia and many of whom mainly watch the Russian state TV 'zombie channels,'" Nazarov said.

It is vital to block Russian media in Kazakhstan, he said.

Mobilisation

Russia's recent unsuccessful experience with involving civilians in its invasion of Ukraine evidently spurred Kazakhstan to thoroughly prepare for its own mobilisation should it need one, Nazarov added.

The revamped military doctrine stipulates the need to "improve the system for monitoring, assessing the situation of and co-ordinating preparation for mobilisation in the state".

In particular, authorities added clauses about about expanding the activities of military-patriotic organisations and using transportation infrastructure facilities for defence.

Another important provision is the introduction of continued military service to Kazakh reservists.

Whereas in the past men who were eligible for military service and already had served in the army were put on reserve and hardly underwent military training, from now on every province will have reservists who on a contract basis will undergo monthly training and learn modern military skills.

This will help ensure that the military can respond swiftly and early to any threat that may arise, the Ministry of Defence said.

Kazakhstan will implement "mutually beneficial co-operation with foreign companies for the supply of modern weapons and military equipment, technology transfer and the creation of joint ventures in Kazakhstan for the production of advanced weapon systems".

"Kazakhstan will most likely reduce its military co-operation with Russia in order to expand the import of more modern and effective weapons from other countries," Nazarov said.

"The war with Ukraine has exposed major shortcomings in overhyped Russian weapons and military equipment, including tanks and planes, which were decimated by the Ukrainian troops in huge quantities," he said.

"It would be odd to keep buying them in spite of everything."

Russian threats

The latest updates come amid aggressive Russian rhetoric regarding Kazakhstan.

The rhetoric that Russian President Vladimir Putin and Russia's political elite and academics have used to justify invading Ukraine -- that it is part of Russia and may not be a sovereign state -- has also been applied to Kazakhstan, according to Erica Marat, a professor at the National Defence University in Washington.

"This rhetoric is all on the same continuum, but in Ukraine it has taken the shape of a brutal war, while in Kazakhstan it's still just words, at least for now," Marat told Caravanserai.

"Not many people expected Russia to send troops into Ukraine and treat the Ukrainian people so brutally", and threats that seemed impossible a year ago have become "a horrible reality", said Marat.

The Kazakh Ministry of Defence will therefore need to anticipate potential scenarios in which Putin may turn his rhetoric into concrete actions against Kazakhstan, Marat said.

"Kazakhstan needs to prepare for an aggressive Russia and for all possible causes of increased tension with Russia," he added.

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It's too late already. Russia has been weakened thanks to the ZSU )))

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