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Kremlin scrapes bottom of the barrel as missile stocks run low

By Olha Chepil and AFP

This aerial picture taken on December 7, shows an analyst from the prosecutor's office examining collected remnants of shells and missiles used by the Russian army to attack Kharkiv, Ukraine's second largest city. [Aleksey Filippov/AFP]

This aerial picture taken on December 7, shows an analyst from the prosecutor's office examining collected remnants of shells and missiles used by the Russian army to attack Kharkiv, Ukraine's second largest city. [Aleksey Filippov/AFP]

KYIV -- Russia's missile stocks are running low, say analysts, as Moscow continues to launch attacks aimed at Ukraine's civilian energy infrastructure.

Ukraine Wednesday (December 14) said it had shot down multiple Iranian-made drones launched at the capital by Russian troops in their latest attack on Kyiv.

Explosions rang out over a central neighbourhood in Kyiv in the early hours, and AFP journalists later saw law enforcement and emergency service workers inspecting metal fragments at a snow-covered impact site.

"The terrorists started this morning with 13 Shaheds," Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said, referring to the Iran-made weapons.

This general view shows a burning fire at a power station in Kharkiv, late September 11, following a missile strike amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine. [Yevhen Titov/AFP]

This general view shows a burning fire at a power station in Kharkiv, late September 11, following a missile strike amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine. [Yevhen Titov/AFP]

Repairmen work near an apartment building damaged by a missile attack in Vyshhorod, outside of Kyiv on November 28, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine. [Genya Savilov/AFP]

Repairmen work near an apartment building damaged by a missile attack in Vyshhorod, outside of Kyiv on November 28, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine. [Genya Savilov/AFP]

"All 13 were shot down," he added, urging residents to heed air raid sirens.

Kyiv has been subjected to almost 10 months of air raid sirens and frequent aerial attacks since Russia invaded Ukraine in February and tried to capture the capital.

But the attacks have increased since October when Russia began systematically targeting critical infrastructure in missile and drone attacks that have disrupted electricity, water and heat to millions in Ukraine.

Kyiv's Western allies have been supplying Ukraine with more advanced air defence systems in response.

Such attacks have not come without cost, however, and have left Russia's missile stocks dangerously low.

Missile reserves should not fall below 30% of their normal level, say scholars of war.

Down to 13% of pre-war stock

But Russia's stocks of Iskander short-range ballistic missiles are at 13% of full inventory, while stocks of Kalibr cruise missiles are approaching 30% of their original number, Ukrainian Defence Minister Oleksii Reznikov said December 6.

He made his remarks after Russia's latest missile barrage on December 5, which involved some 70 missiles.

"They've already done a lot without considering the consequences to them. They really are using reserves of cruise and ballistic missiles," Reznikov said.

"For many items, they have already gone far beyond the reserve they would need if someone attacked them," he added.

"Russian missiles are running out -- this is indisputable," Serhiy Kuzan, director of the Ukrainian Centre for Security and Co-operation, told Caravanserai.

Russia is even equipping long-range, nuclear-capable missiles [meant to cross oceans and continents] with conventional explosives to hit targets in neighbouring Ukraine, he said.

Such missiles are being used because Russia has no way to thwart Ukraine's air defences except by launching a mass attack of missiles, according to Kuzan.

"I'm not sure this is a good solution, but they need to penetrate our air defence somehow. And that is possible only with a massive strike," he said.

"We are supplementing our existing [Soviet-era] systems with new systems coming to us from Western partners ... This is equipment that can move. That is, you can calculate routes for the next [Russian] shelling and set up to be as effective as possible."

"We have not yet achieved a 90% knock-down rate for enemy missiles, but we already get more than 80%. This is a very good number," Kuzan said.

No parts

"The Russians are already using strategic reserves," said Alexander Kovalenko of Kyiv, a military analyst for the website InfoResist.

Such reserves are usually saved for warding off a direct attack on Russia, he said.

"They are exposing themselves, and this is a big problem, above all, for them."

While the Russians are capable of producing missiles, such as the Kh-101 air-launched cruise missile, Kalibr cruise missile and Kh-59 TV-guided cruise missile, they are not being mass produced, according to Kovalenko.

"[The Russians] manage two or three missiles a week. That's all they can do, and it's important to understand that they are stuck at that pace in the face of an urgent need for these missiles," he said.

Western sanctions are one of the main factors behind the slow production, he noted.

"Their production capacity depends entirely on the availability of components produced abroad: microchips, semiconductors, microcircuits and so on. Amid severe sanctions, the only way they can get them is by smuggling," Kovalenko said.

"The Russians are trying to smuggle components through other countries, front companies and offshore zones. Without supplies of smuggled goods, they are not in a position to assemble missiles."

"They just don't have the parts," Kovalenko said.

That means Russia's arms industry could spend up to six months collecting smuggled spare parts to support a single massive strike on Ukraine, analysts estimate.

In the meantime, the Kremlin is seeking other ways to replenish its missile stockpiles, including resurrecting old Soviet missiles that were previously decommissioned or discarded.

"Some missiles are entirely unusable [without massive work]. And the Russians are busy maintaining and repairing them. For example, Kh-22 missiles were used in the latest strike on Ukraine. These are old Soviet missiles that I thought they wouldn't use at all ... but we saw three Kh-22s used," said Kovalenko.

"I don't rule out that they very well could have been restored, repaired Kh-22s that came out of long-term storage. Honestly, it seems they really scraped the bottom of the barrel."

Kh-22s were designed for use against aircraft carriers and carrier battle groups.

'Already lost'

Russia has also sought missiles from Iran.

Intelligence officials say that Iran has agreed to send surface-to-surface missiles to Moscow, following Tehran's earlier shipments of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) such as those used in Wednesday's attack.

"No one thought that [Russian President Vladimir] Putin would run around the world looking for weapons, let alone from countries like Iran, which itself is a pariah state. That is Russia's situation," said Dmytro Levus, a Kyiv-based political scientist and analyst with United Ukraine, a think-tank.

"In fact, Iran is afraid to be linked to Russia. This is easy to see in the case of the kamikaze drones that the Russians suddenly had," he told Caravanserai.

After weeks of vehemently denying it had transferred drones to Moscow, despite ample evidence to the contrary, Tehran abruptly changed course on November 5.

Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian confirmed Iran had provided Russia with drones, while rejecting reports it had sent missiles to Moscow for its war on Ukraine.

"If you look at Russia's entire military system, it has already lost," said Levus.

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You've been telling us Russia was out of munitions since April 2022. It's not Russia running around the world looking for weapons, it's Ukraine begging for weapons and money in every Congress & Parliament that will have him. Now according to the NYT, the Pentagon is scrambling to find munitions for Ukraine, even shipping them to Ukraine from Israeli storage. Uh oh. I don't think the Kremlin will like that very much. Israel just made a big boo boo

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They couldn't even destroy the power grid of Ukraine.

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