Russia's presence in Syria weakens its strategic relationship with Turkey

Russia's continuing presence in Syria has weakened its strong, though occasionally uneasy, relationship with Turkey, with the friction likely to have detrimental long-term consequences for the Kremlin, analysts say.

Russia and Turkey are on opposite sides of the Syrian conflict, where the Kremlin is a key backer of the regime of Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad and Turkey supports Syrian opposition factions.

This divergence of interests has caused sharp tensions between the two nations, with Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February last year additionally straining the relationship.

In the first such talks since the onset of the Syrian war, the defence ministers of Russia, Turkey and Syria met in Moscow in late December to discuss the situation in Syria, AFP reported.

The foreign ministers of the three countries are slated to meet "in the second half of January", perhaps in a third country, the Turkish foreign minister said.

The tripartite meetings are a sign of rapprochement between Turkey and the Syrian regime, with potential benefits for both sides.

But real progress is unlikely while Russian forces remain in Syria, propping up al-Assad against the will of Turkey and its NATO allies, analysts say.

Ankara on Tuesday (January 4) hosted the leaders of Syria's opposition in a bid to assuage their concern following its recent overtures to al-Assad's regime.

"We reiterated our support to the Syrian opposition and people in accordance with UNSC [United Nations Security Council] Resolution 2254," Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu said in reference to a 2015 call for a ceasefire and political settlement in Syria.

The United States also made clear its opposition to improving relations with al-Assad.

"We do not support countries upgrading their relations or expressing support to rehabilitate the brutal dictator Bashar al-Assad," US State Department spokesman Ned Price said when asked about the Moscow meeting.

"We urge states to carefully consider the al-Assad regime's atrocious human rights record of the past 12 years as it continues to inflict atrocities on the Syrian people and to deny access to life-saving humanitarian aid," Price said.

Turkey's balancing act

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has put Turkey in a difficult position, as it has had solid relations with both countries: Russia is Turkey's primary energy supplier, and both Russia and Ukraine supply it with grain.

"Turkey is in the top three of Russia's global trade partners. It's kept a neutral stance in the war or you could say plays both sides," NPR said in a December 10 report.

"It supplies Ukraine with drones, weapons, armoured vehicles but keeps doing business with Russia."

Turkey "more than doubled its trade with Russia in 2022, compared to the year before, and that has created breathing room for Russia's squeezed economy".

It also abstained from a vote on suspending Russia's membership in most bodies of the Council of Europe.

Yet Ankara has called on Russia to cease hostilities in Ukraine, angering Moscow by supplying armed drones to Ukrainian forces and being quick to call Russia's invasion of Ukraine a "war".

Its February 28 move to block all warships from entering the Black Sea also was a calculated decision, as it could have chosen to block only belligerent -- i.e., Russian -- ships.

"It likely chose to block all warships to avoid the appearance of taking sides against Russia," Forbes reported March 2.

But Turkey's balancing act could put it at risk of legal action: a neutral state could sue it for blocking its navigational rights in the straits.

Acting without Russia

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan on Thursday pressed Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin to declare a "unilateral" ceasefire in Ukraine, as part of his continuing attempts to mediate an end to the war.

Erdoğan has been able to maintain good relations with Putin by refusing to join Western sanctions on Russia and by ramping up Turkish-Russian trade during the war.

But Turkey controls the flow of Russian oil through the Bosporus.

And it has shown it is willing to act against Russia -- notably in late October, when it agreed to move 16 ships through the Black Sea despite Russia's suspension of the pact to export grain from Ukraine.

Erdoğan said the grain export would go ahead despite the Russian suspension, the Anatolia news agency reported.

"Turkey will make efforts within the framework of the agreement and despite Russia's doubts," he said at the time, noting the UN-brokered agreement has succeeded in "reducing the food crisis" caused by the war in Ukraine.

After Moscow withdrew from the Ukrainian grain deal, it took Erdoğan just two days to get Russia to return to the agreement, the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace said in a November 8 report.

"The speed of this reversal shows just how much Ankara's influence on Moscow has grown in the last eight months, drastically shifting the relationship balance in Turkey's favour," it said.

Putin is increasingly reliant on Turkey, according to the NPR report.

"Erdoğan is also reliant on money from Russia to keep the economy going as he faces election in the upcoming year," it said.

But US officials have warned that Turkey may face penalties if it helps Russia evade Western sanctions.

Middle East Institute Turkey programme director Gonul Tol says it is a fine line for Erdoğan to walk, according to NPR.

"He needs Putin, and he will not jeopardise that close partnership that he has cultivated over the years," Tol said. "But that does not mean that he will throw away Turkey's partnership with the Western world."