Caravanserai
Energy

Gazprom CEO's visit to Ashgabat heralds yet another attempt to evade sanctions

By Dzhumaguly Annayev

Russian President Vladimir Putin (left) poses next to Gazprom CEO Alexey Miller after awarding him with the title of 'Hero of Labour of the Russian Federation' during an award ceremony in Moscow on February 2, 2022. [Sergei Karpukhin/Pool/AFP]

Russian President Vladimir Putin (left) poses next to Gazprom CEO Alexey Miller after awarding him with the title of 'Hero of Labour of the Russian Federation' during an award ceremony in Moscow on February 2, 2022. [Sergei Karpukhin/Pool/AFP]

ASHGABAT -- A visit by Gazprom CEO Alexey Miller to Turkmenistan is the latest attempt by Russia to skirt sanctions on its natural-gas exports, according to a Turkmen government source and observers.

Europe has significantly cut back gas imports from Russia since the start of the Kremlin's invasion of Ukraine last year.

Miller, a longtime confidant of Russian President Vladimir Putin who has led Gazprom for more than 20 years, visited Ashgabat on February 15.

He met with Turkmen President Serdar Berdymukhamedov to discuss energy co-operation, the nation's television channels reported.

The Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline is a proposed undersea pipeline between Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan. The main goal of the project is to transport natural gas from Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan to Türkiye and Europe, bypassing both Russia and Iran. [Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline]

The Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline is a proposed undersea pipeline between Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan. The main goal of the project is to transport natural gas from Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan to Türkiye and Europe, bypassing both Russia and Iran. [Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline]

Miller also conferred with the chairman of the country's People's Council Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov -- Serdar's father and predecessor as president.

Local media provided few details of their talks.

"TDH [the Turkmenistan State News Agency] sent all publications a text about 'the longtime partnership and steadfast ties with Gazprom, and the prospect of realising existing potential'," said Dovlet A., an economic correspondent at an Ashgabat newspaper who requested to withhold his last name.

"It was obvious that the generalities were hiding something important that the media and public weren't supposed to know about."

Russia, Iran colluding to bypass sanctions

The true purpose of the meeting was to get Turkmenistan to co-operate in a scheme to export Russian gas to other markets, a source in the Turkmen State Agency for Management and Use of Hydrocarbon Resources told Caravanserai on the condition of anonymity.

Because of its war in Ukraine, Russia lost a profitable gas market in Europe, isolated itself and was hit with severe sanctions, said the source.

It is now frantically looking all over the world for countries that will somehow help it escape the punishing situation, the official said.

In closed meetings the parties discussed joint deliveries of Russian and Turkmen gas through Iran and South Asian countries -- specifically, Pakistan and India -- and also to Türkiye and Europe, bypassing the international sanctions, he said.

"On Putin's orders, Miller was using either persuasion or threats to try to convince the Turkmen leadership to join Russia and Iran in their reckless plans, which ultimately will produce the result Russia wants," he said.

On February 15 -- the same day Miller met with the Berdymukhamedovs -- Reza Novshadi, managing director and chairman of the board of the Iranian Gas Engineering and Development Co., announced that Iran was willing to receive gas from Turkmenistan and Russia in the north and deliver it in the south to any other country, he noted.

"Apparently Russia and Iran, which are both the targets of international sanctions, have already agreed to swap deliveries of gas, and Miller came here to pressure Turkmenistan to take part in this venture and make its pipeline system available to Gazprom to pump Russian gas south," the official said.

Extortion, intimidation

Turkmenistan has long been trying to build gas pipelines through Afghanistan and the Caspian Sea and to export its gas to the West or East directly and without outside influence, said the source.

"But these pariah countries, Russia and Iran, are doing everything they can to keep Turkmenistan from competing with them on those gas markets."

"As soon as [Turkmenistan] starts to promote the TAPI (Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India) gas pipeline project, Russia intimidates it with talk of instability in Afghanistan or the concentration of tens of thousands of militants from radical groups there," he said.

Tehran also opposes the TAPI gas pipeline since it wants to sell its own gas to Pakistan and India, said the official.

"Russia and Iran are also jointly opposing Turkmenistan's construction of a gas pipeline across the Caspian Sea, saying that it will damage the ecosystem," the official added.

On the same day Miller visited Ashgabat, Russian Telegram news channel View to the East reiterated that Russia was willing to block the Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline (TCGP), which the Kremlin has long opposed, the source noted.

If built, the 300km-long TCGP under the Caspian Sea would feed into the Southern Gas Corridor, which connects to Europe from Azerbaijan via Georgia and Türkiye.

The report that Russia would not permit the construction of the pipeline was not at all coincidental, said the official.

Rather, it is nothing but extortion and intimidation -- Russia's favourite modus operandi, he said.

"I know that Miller offered the Berdymukhamedovs something they have not yet allowed the media to mention," the official said.

View to the East also reported that Russia offered Turkmenistan the opportunity to become a full-fledged member of a consortium similar to the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) being created by Russia and Iran.

As envisioned by Moscow, the gas union would initially include Russia, Iran, Turkmenistan and later Qatar -- the four countries with the largest quantities of proven reserves of natural gas.

Turkmenistan has more than 19 trillion cubic metres of proven reserves of gas, rounding out the top four.

It currently has two gas pipelines leading to Iran: the Korpedzhe–Kurt-Kui pipeline (8 billion cubic metre annual capacity) and the Dovletabat–Serahs–Hangeran pipeline (12 billion cubic metre capacity).

As part of a gas swap deal with Iran and Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan delivers its gas to Iran's northeast provinces, while Iran pumps the same amount of its own gas to Azerbaijan from its southwest, where its main fields are located and where the capacity to process it exists.

'A black cauldron'

Miller likely threatened Turkmenistan with an ultimatum if his true goal is to make Turkmenistan allow its territory and infrastructure to be used to pump Russian gas to Iran, according to Dovlet A., the Turkmen journalist.

"Either you [Turkmenistan] are with us and we share in the common cause, or you're not with us and ... whatever it is you want, you'll never get it," he said.

The Turkmen media's efforts to conceal details of the talks in Ashgabat stem from the prospects of increased exports of Turkmen gas on the one hand, and on the other, the risk of loss of face, international sanctions and other troubles, said the journalist.

"If Turkmenistan enters this gas deal with Russia and Iran, it could lose its image as a neutral state and ultimately end up in the same group as countries that have been targeted with international sanctions," Dovlet A. said.

He cited a Turkmen proverb: "If you get near a black cauldron, you’ll get black soot on yourself."

"In this situation, Russia and Iran, which everyone recognises as dangerous for the surrounding countries, are like the black cauldron," Dovlet A. said.

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