Russia's outdated Black Sea fleet forced to rely on 'brown-water' tactics

KYIV -- Exalted in song as a city of "Russian military glory" and an "impenetrable bastion", Russia's main Black Sea naval base of Sevastopol in illegally occupied Crimea has failed to live up to its reputation as warships based there come under increasing attack.

Before Russia launched its unprovoked assault on Ukraine in February 2022, it flexed its military muscles in the Black Sea, staging a massive exercise involving more than 30 vessels from Sevastopol and Novorossiysk.

But that summer, Ukrainian forces staging a fight-back began to successfully target Sevastopol and Russian naval vessels using air and surface unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), commonly known as drones.

Since then, there have been regular incidents in the waters of the storied Crimean port, including an April 24 drone attack on the naval base that came amid reports that Ukraine is readying a massive counteroffensive.

Correspondents for Crimea-focused news portal Krym.Realii reported that two explosions were heard April 24 in the vicinity of Sevastopol's Nakhimov Naval Academy and Striletska Bay, along with rifle and anti-aircraft gun fire.

'Brown-water fleet'

Despite Russian attempts to put a spin on the situation, the Russian navy in Crimea has become a brown-water fleet incapable of implementing innovative solutions and unwilling to partner with foreign powers to supplement their dilapidated naval defense, analysts told Caravanserai.

"A brown-water navy means that the naval force operates in coastal waters, in the area close to the shore, no farther than 12 miles [19km] off the coast or on the river routes," military analyst Ivan Kirichevsky told Caravanserai.

This describes the current activity of the Russian navy at Sevastopol, said Kirichevsky, who works for the Kyiv-based consulting company Defence Express.

"They're crawling out a few kilometres from the shore of the temporarily occupied Crimea, shooting Kalibr missiles and quickly crawling back," he said.

There have been widespread reports that Russia's missile stock is running low.

The Kremlin's navy is essentially confined to its bases and cannot operate, analysts said, noting that this has come as a surprise, as before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia's Black Sea Fleet was considered a mighty force.

Kirichevsky attributes that misreading to exaggerated respect for the huge number of Soviet-built ships in the fleet.

But now these ships are not leaving the ports at all, he said.

"The only thing their navy can do is creep a few kilometres away from the shore and shell us with Kalibr missiles, and transport military cargo along the Sea of Azov, where they don't face any threats," Kirichevsky said.

Russia's inability to defend its navy from attacks is mortifying to its military commanders. Last year, Russian President Vladimir Putin even had to cancel the celebration of Navy Day in Sevastopol -- a sacrosanct date for decades.

"I'm sure that when fighting for Crimea itself begins, the Russians will do exactly what they usually do," Kirichevsky said.

"They'll lash the ships to their moorings or just scuttle them altogether, while the crew will go ashore and become a land force," he added. "That's what they did during World War II."

Problematic air defence

The main reason for the catastrophic state of the Russian navy in the Black Sea is a problem with the offshore air defence system, analysts told Caravanserai.

After the destruction of the Moskva, Russia's flagship missile cruiser, in April 2022, they noted, Russian ships were left almost without protection in these waters.

The Russians have been forced to hastily refit their ships, and this alters their original purpose and their effectiveness, they said, with Project 22160 patrol ships now being fitted with Tor-M2KM antiaircraft missile systems.

"The patrol ships were supposed to have a helicopter," said Maksym Palamarchuk, who heads the Ukrainian National Institute for Strategic Studies' Centre for Foreign Policy Studies.

"But instead of a helicopter, they were fitted with surface-to-air missile systems to give them the ability to fend off drones and aircraft," he told Caravanserai.

"Because of a shortage of regular combat-ready aircraft, they've repurposed patrol ships for a combat role they're not very suitable for," he said.

"These vessels aren't powerful enough to carry out independent missions -- after all, they're really just marine police boats."

It is "simply unthinkable" to put a land anti-aircraft missile system on a ship, according to Odesa-based military observer Alexander Kovalenko, who provides military and political analysis for the InfoResist website.

Land and ship-based systems operate on "totally different calculations and have totally different characteristics", he told Caravanserai.

"Even if you look at it from the most basic point of view, this anti-aircraft missile system will be constantly rocking [at sea]," he explained. "But it's ... designed to be used on firm ground."

Untested defence systems

"It's clear that they need to get out of this situation because their maritime air defence is crude overall," Kovalenko said, adding that the Kremlin has not tested its maritime air defence in the most demanding simulated combat.

A Soviet-era S-300F system installed on the Moskva missile cruiser had not been tested sufficiently and ultimately could not perform its task, he said, noting that the war in Ukraine has laid bare all the weaknesses of that system.

"The problem isn't just in the Black Sea Fleet," he said, pointing out that Russia's "entire Pacific Fleet is protected either by ships with the S-300F anti-aircraft missile system or by ships fitted with the new Poliment-Redoubt system".

The Poliment-Redoubt system has not been fully tested either, he said, indicating the dire state of modern Russian shipbuilding.

"With the money they have, they could have a much more formidable fleet, but they're plagued by systemic corruption," Palamarchuk said.

"Even if this war doesn't put an end to their navy, it will create major problems for its future development," he said.