In latest Russian aggression, disinformation halts Kazakh military exports

ALMATY -- Kazakhstan has suspended military exports for a year after facing pressure from Russian disinformation, the latest sign of Moscow's dissatisfaction with its neighbour.

Prime Minister Alikhan Smailov following a meeting of the country's Defence Industry Committee on August 27 adopted a proposal from the Ministry of Industry and Infrastructure Development (MIIR) to suspend exports of military products, including weapons and equipment.

The suspension will last through the end of August 2023, according to a statement from Smailov's press office.

The official statement gave no reason for the decision.

Earlier in the month, however, pro-Kremlin hackers circulated documents online that they said confirmed "a deal for Britain to buy Kazakh arms for Ukraine".

They claimed to have found an agreement, allegedly concluded on July 16, that stipulates a supply of weapons worth $46 million over 180 days.

MIIR, which issues licences for the export or import of military products, denied the claim on August 10.

The agency said on Stopfake.kz, an official website aimed at countering disinformation, that it did not issue a licence to export the listed weapons during the specified period to any country.

Rybar, a Russian propaganda Telegram channel, however, continued to claim that the arms exports had the approval of Kazakhstan's National Security Committee (KNB) and were taking place "behind closed doors".

Kazakhstan, which inherited its defence industry from the Soviet Union, has around 40 defence contractors that produce radio electronics, ammunition, artillery shells, armaments for armoured vehicles and naval weapons.

Last year, Kazakhstan exported defence-related products to Russia, Belarus, India, Ukraine and Uzbekistan as well as other countries in Southeast Asia, Central Asia and the Middle East, the business website Kursiv reported last December, citing MIIR.

Preparing for Russian aggression

The latest disinformation comes amid repeated remarks by Russian media and politicians targeting Kazakhstan's sovereignty.

Russian politicians and propaganda in recent years have claimed North Kazakhstan province as historically Russian and have made baseless accusations claiming that Russian-speaking residents there are being oppressed.

In an article in the government-run Rossiyskaya Gazeta last November, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov criticised Kazakhstan for "xenophobia against Russian-speaking citizens".

In another incident this August, Dmitry Medvedev, a former president of Russia and current deputy chairman of the Russian Security Council, made a post on VKontakte (VK) in which he called Kazakhstan an "artificial state" and accused it of "genocide of Russians".

The post was deleted, and Medvedev's assistant later claimed that the page had been hacked.

Russia's disinformation attacks may eventually turn into real hostilities, as happened with Ukraine, warned Yuri Poyta of Kyiv, head of the Asia-Pacific Section of the Centre for Army, Conversion and Disarmament Studies.

"These risks are real, and Kazakhstan should take the growing threat from Russia seriously," he said.

The government of Kazakhstan appears to be doing just that, and has shown signs that it is learning from the war in Ukraine and taking steps to prepare for possible threats to its own security.

In April, Kazakhstan allocated an additional $1 billion for defence in 2022, devoting the funds to "increasing combat readiness and upgrading the equipment of law enforcement and emergency response agencies".

Most of the spending was to be used to increase the number of special force units operating under the Interior Ministry (MVD), National Guard and the Defence Ministry, and to purchase additional equipment, including military transport aircraft. Military personnel received pay raises of up to 40%.

In June, Kazakhstan updated its military doctrine to reflect the current geopolitical situation.

This document was last revised in 2017, when, for the first time, it introduced definitions of hybrid warfare and noted the threat of the "fomentation and escalation of an armed conflict in the border zone of the Republic of Kazakhstan".

The latest revision now also says that military threats also include the use of mass media outlets and social media and "information and propaganda activities, including information operations (cyberattacks)", aimed at destabilising a state.

A potential threat

"Kazakhstan now officially associates propaganda and cyberattacks with potential military threats," said Sanjar Iskanderov, spokesman for the Almaty-based publishing house Drakkar.

"This is exactly what Russian media outlets are doing, along with pro-Kremlin hackers acting as 'whistleblowers'."

"In light of current events, one doesn't need to be a military expert to understand which neighbour may pose a potential threat in Kazakhstan's view," Iskanderov said.

President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev's order to restore bomb shelters in Almaty is the latest sign of growing concerns.

"Work has begun... in major cities," Almaty mayor Erbolat Dosayev said on August 27. "This is connected not only with geopolitical events ... we are in a seismically active zone, so the city must be ready for [an emergency]."

However, locals call the seismic risk a pretext. The real reason is to protect against a possible invasion, they contend.

"Why did the government decide to restore bomb shelters in Almaty today, after 30 years of independence?" Almaty blogger Kairat Nuraliyev asked rhetorically.

"We can only guess."