'Depends': ambassador's statements expose Beijing's view of ex-Soviet states' sovereignty

ALMATY -- Recent provocative comments by China's ambassador to France questioning the sovereignty of former Soviet republics provide insight into Beijing's view of the now independent states, say analysts.

Speaking on French news channel LCI on April 21, Chinese Ambassador to France Lu Shaye said that the countries of the former Soviet Union "don't have effective status under international law because there is no international agreement confirming their status as sovereign countries".

He appeared to be referring not just to Ukraine, which Russia invaded in February 2022, but to all former Soviet republics that emerged as independent nations after the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991.

Asked about his position on whether Crimea is part of Ukraine, the diplomat said: "It depends on how you look at the question."

He added that historically, Crimea was part of Russia before Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev offered it to Ukraine in 1954.

His comments drew ire in Europe and threw into question Beijing's efforts to position itself as a neutral mediator of the Ukraine war.

Mykhailo Podolyak, adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, tweeted on April 23 that the sovereign status of all post-Soviet countries is enshrined in international law.

Podolyak criticised Lu's comments about Crimea, which Russia occupied in 2014.

"It is strange to hear an absurd version of the 'history of Crimea' from the representative of a country that is over-scrupulous about its own thousand-year history," he wrote.

"If you want to be a big political player, don't repeat the propaganda of Russian outsiders."

'Completely unacceptable'

Baltic countries Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia, which were also part of the Soviet Union and joined the European Union after the collapse of the USSR, condemned Lu's remarks.

On Twitter, Latvian Foreign Minister Edgars Rinkēvičs called Lu's remarks "completely unacceptable".

"We expect explanation from the Chinese side and complete retraction of this statement," wrote Rinkēvičs.

Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna called Lu's position "regrettable" and "incomprehensible". He told news website Delfi that the Foreign Ministry would summon the Chinese ambassador to Estonia for clarification.

"If necessary, we will give the ambassador a brief history lesson," Tsahkna said.

For his part, Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis said in a tweet that Lu's statements explain why the Baltic states do not trust China to "broker peace in Ukraine".

"Lithuania never joined the USSR. Moscow illegally occupied our territory, so we resisted until we restored our independence and the Red Army went back home," Landsbergis later wrote. "We're not post-soviet, we're never-soviet [sic]."

A statement released by the French Foreign Ministry on April 22 said that it "learned with dismay about the statements made by the Chinese ambassador to France regarding the borders of countries that gained independence after the collapse of the Soviet Union".

"It remains for China to say whether these statements reflect its position, but we hope they do not," the ministry said.

Same playbook as Russia

Under pressure from the growing international scandal, Beijing did not immediately react to its ambassador's statements.

A few days after Lu's remarks, China's Foreign Ministry issued a statement saying that Beijing respects the sovereignty of all post-Soviet states.

However, observers are sceptical.

Yuri Poyta, a Kyiv resident and head of the Asia-Pacific Section of the Centre for Army, Conversion and Disarmament Studies, told Caravanserai that the Chinese ambassador expressed not the official line but Beijing's true position.

"The leadership of the People's Republic of China considers Ukraine and other former Soviet countries not independent, sovereign states, but Russia's zone of influence, and expects the ultimate return of these territories to the Russian Federation," Poyta said.

Astana is already used to such information attacks.

Russian officials, for example, have regularly questioned Kazakhstan's sovereignty and territorial integrity over the past few years, claiming that Kazakhstan's northern territories historically belonged to Russia.

In 2014, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that Kazakhs lacked nationhood, and in November 2021, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov penned an article expressing alarm at the problem of "xenophobia against the Russian-speaking citizens of Kazakhstan".

The rhetoric of their eastern neighbour suggests that Beijing is not much different from Moscow in terms of great-power aspirations, say observers in Central Asia.

"Like Russia, China has never considered us equal partners ... and, in general, as full-fledged countries," Kasybek Zholchuyev, a security analyst from Bishkek, told Caravanserai.

"For them, our region is just an appendage with raw materials, and they think that they should decide for us what we should do and how we should develop," Zholchuyev said.

Beijing cultivates friendly partnerships with Central Asian countries as long as the region serves Chinese interests -- in other words, as long as China can build transport routes through the countries and extract energy resources, Mars Abayev, a political correspondent for Orbita.kg, a Kyrgyz news portal, told Caravanserai.

"We must understand: China is not a friend or a brother to us but a cunning and calculating neighbour," he said.