Poland, Lithuania tighten security as Wagner joins Belarus maneuvers on border

KYIV -- Tension has been mounting in recent weeks on the frontier separating Poland and Lithuania from Belarus, where analysts say the Wagner Group is creating an unprecedented threat to European Union (EU) countries.

The Russian mercenary group's fighters have been holding joint exercises with Belarusian special forces at the Brest training ground, only 13km from the border with Poland.

Discussing the maneuvers Tuesday (August 1) at a meeting with residents of Belovezh, an agricultural settlement in Kamenets district, Belarusian leader Alyaksandr Lukashenka dismissed Poland's fears as "baseless".

Wagner Group fighters do not pose any threat, he said.

During a July 29 news conference in Gliwice, however, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki called the movement of Wagner Group fighters toward the Suwałki Gap a "step toward a further hybrid attack on Poland".

The Suwałki Gap runs along the Polish-Lithuanian border and connects Belarus with the Russian province of Kaliningrad -- one of the main areas where Russian troops could strike with the aim of forging a path to Kaliningrad, which has no land link to the rest of Russia.

Lithuania last Friday announced it would close two of its six border crossings with Belarus amid concerns over the presence of Wagner mercenaries.

"We are preparing the decision to shut down two checkpoints," Lithuanian deputy interior minister Arnoldas Abramavicius told AFP, naming the Sumsko and Tvereciaus crossings as those to be closed.

4,000 mercenaries in Belarus

About 4,000 mercenaries are stationed in Belarus already, Lithuanian and Polish leaders said last week.

Both countries are mulling a joint decision to close the border with Belarus completely, amid concerns that Wagner fighters could try to cross disguised as migrants or carry out other provocative acts.

Abramavicius said the decision on the two checkpoints was being made because Lithuania needed "to be ready to completely shut down the border at any moment".

Both Poland and Lithuania have erected fences on their borders with Belarus and Russia, accusing Minsk and Moscow of orchestrating migrant influxes into the EU in order to destabilize the 27-member bloc.

Wagner Group fighters stationed in Belarus are dispersed among the country's regular army and Internal Troops.

But their numbers are insufficient to break through the Suwałki Gap, analysts say.

"I would say unequivocally that there's no threat to the Suwałki Gap," said former Belarusian soldier and Kyiv resident Sergei Bulba, who heads the non-governmental organization Belarus 2.0: Robimo razom (Let's Work Together).

Such a notion is "unrealistic", he said. "Wagner fighters don't have any heavy weapons with them."

"To be blunt," he added, "there's no one to go meet them because the Kaliningrad unit that still existed a year ago is now for the most part face down and fertilizing the black soil in Ukraine."

Poland steps up security

Last Tuesday, two Belarusian helicopters crossed into Polish airspace during military exercises near the border.

In response to this infringement, Polish defense minister Mariusz Błaszczak ordered more soldiers to the border and the allocation of additional forces and resources, including combat helicopters.

Poland reported the incident to NATO.

In late July, Poland announced it plans to almost double its armed forces, who now number more than 172,000 personnel.

"Poland has beefed up security along its border," said political scientist and international security analyst Taras Zhovtenko of the Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation.

It has moved separate military units and divisions toward the border "to be able to respond as fast as possible", he said.

"Also, NATO has taken into account these new hybrid threats and strengthened Poland's defense using allied units, first and foremost from the United States," Zhovtenko added.

Guarding against threats

According to US assessments, Wagner Group fighters pose no threat to NATO at present, US National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said last Tuesday.

"We're not aware of any specific threat posed by Wagner to Poland or to any of our NATO allies. We're watching that, obviously, closely," he said.

At the same time, analysts say Wagner's capability in Belarus is hybrid operations, rather than direct military operations.

"Poland is doing the right thing in significantly fortifying its position," said Ukrainian Institute for the Future analyst Ivan Stupak, a former officer in the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU).

"The Kremlin may implement any scenario: sabotage, kidnapping of Polish border guards, attempts to destroy the fence that's on the border and the release of streams of migrants into Poland," he said.

In addition, he said, Wagner fighters could strike the routes along which Western weapons are delivered to Ukraine.

"A month ago the Polish counterintelligence service arrested an entire network of Russian agents who were planning to sabotage the transport and logistical delivery routes for Western weapons to Ukraine," Zhovtenko said.

"That also could be a task for the Wagner fighters."

Last Friday, Polish authorities announced the arrest of a Belarusian man identified only as Mikhail A., saying that he surveilled military facilities and ports.

In addition to their proximity to the Polish border, Wagner Group mercenaries in Belarus and the Belarusian army are just 40km away from the border with Ukraine. But analysts say a Belarusian invasion of Ukraine would be unlikely.

"Ukraine keeps 15,000 to 18,000 soldiers on the border with Belarus permanently," said Bulba of Belarus 2.0.

"The territory there became a solid fortified zone a long time ago," he said. "To break through it, you need an advantage of at least triple or quadruple that number of troops, but the Belarusians and Wagner fighters don't have that."

Weapons are needed to invade Poland or Ukraine, he said.

Yet the mercenary group's fighters left all their heavy vehicles and equipment -- about 2,000 pieces, including armored personnel carriers, armored infantry fighting vehicles and anti-aircraft artillery complexes -- in Russia after their brief mutiny in late June.

"They have only up to 10 armored vehicles -- the Chekan, as they call them," Bulba said. "Overall, they have nothing left."

Stolen cars and shoplifting

Satellite photos from July 31 that Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty published last Wednesday suggest that Wagner Group fighters have begun building fortifications at the Repishche training ground in Belarus.

The photos show construction work, what are likely dugout shelters, and vehicles that look like minibuses and bulldozers, as well as passenger cars, which Wagnerites were probably able to drive in from Ukraine.

"Journalists who communicated with a Wagner fighter told me that the [mercenaries] are supposedly ferrying and registering 'trophy cars' on a large scale," Bulba said, referring to cars that Wagnerites stole from Ukrainians.

Belarusians have told him the newly arrived Wagnerites have begun shoplifting from stores, he added.

"We are getting hints from Osipovichi that stores are experiencing theft -- apparently that's the kind of thing Wagner fighters do," Bulba said, referring to a Belarusian town.

Belarusian authorities remain tight-lipped about the Wagnerites and their relocation, arresting some civilians who have tried to film or photograph them.

"A week ago a man was even convicted in Osipovichi of filming this column of Wagner fighters on his phone," Bulba said. "He was caught ... and now he's facing four years in prison."

Despite the secrecy, investigators from "All Eyes on Wagner!", who are monitoring the group's activities, were able to identify its leader in Belarus.

Sergei Chubko -- code-named "Pioneer" -- answers to Wagner Group founder Yevgeny Prigozhin.

Originally from Chernivtsi, Ukraine, Chubko moved to Russia in the early 1990s, joined Wagner in 2017, fought in Syria and served in the Central African Republic, the monitor said.

Analysts say they will continue to keep an eye on the Wagner Group's activities in Belarus, because the danger posed by the group must not be underestimated.

"These remnants of Wagner have become the ideal hybrid tool, because now [Russian President Vladimir] Putin's regime can use them however it wants and also say they have minimal ties to Moscow since they're in Belarus," Zhovtenko said.