A 'dangerous' proposition: Central Asia wary of co-operation with Iran

TASHKENT -- Iran's recent interest in extending the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway into its territory has raised new concerns that co-operation with Tehran could be problematic for Central Asia.

"Iran is interested in cultivating trade and economic relations with Kyrgyzstan," Saeed Kharazi, Iran's ambassador to Kyrgyzstan, said during the Kyrgyzstan-Iran Business Forum held in Bishkek on October 11–12.

"To expand trade, the first thing we need to do is solve the logistics problem. To do that, we could extend the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway to Iran," he said.

"That would open up an outlet to the sea for Kyrgyzstan," Kharazi told Kyrgyz media.

China, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan earlier on September 14, in the run-up to a Shanghai Co-operation Organisation (SCO) summit in Samarkand, inked a trilateral agreement to build the railway.

The construction of a railway from China to these two Central Asian countries had been under discussion for almost two decades.

The project envisions a 165km-long extension from Kashgar in the Xinjiang region of China, to the Chinese-Kyrgyz border, plus a 268km-long segment through Kyrgyzstan via the Arpa Valley (Fergana Range) to Uzgen.

If those two segments are built, they would link to an existing Uzbek railway to Qorasuv, Andijan province.

Under the new agreement, the feasibility study for construction in Kyrgyzstan is set to be completed in the first half of 2023.

The railway project would enable transportation from China through Uzbekistan and the so-called Southern Corridor to the Persian Gulf states.

Iran has long kept an eye on Chinese and Central Asian initiatives.

Last October, for example, Kharazi broached the topic of a new Iran-Turkmenistan-Uzbekistan-Kyrgyzstan railway that would use the Bandar Abbas port in the Persian Gulf at a meeting with Ruslan Kazakbayev, the Kyrgyz minister of foreign affairs, foreign trade and investment.

Geopolitical danger

Kharazi's remarks indicate that Iran wants to join the transport alliance, but analysts wonder about Tehran's motives.

Iran is trying to ease pressure from international sanctions and more actively participate in regional ventures, including in China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), also known as One Belt, One Road (OBOR), according to Nigara Khidoyatova, an Uzbek politician living in the United States.

"Iran doesn't have the same resources as other geopolitical players, but it does have a long border with the Central Asian countries and ancient cultural and historical ties," she said, adding that closer ties with Central Asia would be primarily beneficial for Iran.

"Iran's indirect participation in the war against Ukraine on Russia's side is exacerbating the pressure from sanctions," said Khidoyatova.

For the Central Asian countries, this is also associated with the danger of being blacklisted, she said.

Infrastructure plans with Iran should "be put on the back burner until better days", Khidoyatova said. "For the time being, everything needs to be done without Iran."

Iran is trying to wend its way into any regional integration process in order to legitimise itself in the international arena as it copes with sanctions and international isolation, said Anvar Nazirov, a political analyst from Tashkent.

It would be dangerous to co-operate with Iran, he said.

"Iran, Russia and Belarus are pariah countries -- they're trying to gain political capital in Central Asia and monetise their ideas," said Nazirov.

"They're using us to demonstrate on the international stage that they aren't isolated and that they have allies," he said.

"Iran wants the same thing. It has nothing to offer," Nazirov said.

"On top of that, neither Iran, Russia nor China is even bothering to ask the Central Asian countries whether they share their views," he said. "Their position is, 'Central Asia will support us no matter what we do. They don't have a voice or their own opinion.'"

"So I think we need to keep our distance from Iran and other isolated countries," Nazirov said.

"As integration processes are being revived along the China-Central Asia axis while Russia grows weaker geopolitically, Iran doesn't want to be left standing on the sidelines," said Alisher Ilkhamov, director of the London-based organisation Central Asia Due Diligence.

It clearly wants to play an active role in these processes through this type of venture," he said.

Iran also does not want to be left out of the noticeable changes under way in transport and logistics routes connecting Central Asia to the outside world that resulted from Russia's invasion of Ukraine, he added.

Exporting fanaticism?

One peril of Iranian economic courtship is the potential for Iran to export fanaticism, warned Murad Kurbanov, leader of the Democratic Choice of Turkmenistan opposition movement, who currently lives in France.

If Iran has its way, "imams, mullahs, religious authorities and various fanatical Islamic movements will integrate into Central Asian countries", he warned

Iranian theocracy differs from Russian President Vladimir Putin's secular imperialism, he said, but neither model "will lead Central Asian countries to prosperity".