Kremlin turns to fear-mongering in attempt to maintain influence in Central Asia

TASHKENT -- Facing failure in its invasion of Ukraine, Russia is making up non-existent threats in Central Asia to maintain influence in what was once "its backyard", say analysts.

Russian President Vladimir Putin on September 29 accused the West of trying to destabilise the post-Soviet space, a common refrain by Kremlin propagandists.

He made his remarks at an online meeting of the directors of security and intelligence agencies of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS).

The challenging process of building a "more just world order" was already under way, said Putin.

"The old unipolar hegemony is inexorably collapsing... [But] the West is categorically refusing to accept [this]," he said.

"The West is devising scenarios for inciting new conflicts in the CIS ... Just look at what is happening between Russia and Ukraine, what is happening on the borders of other CIS countries," he said.

The risks of destabilisation across the entire Asia-Pacific region are escalating, which means "the CIS countries must take consistent and co-ordinated action, continuously strengthening mutual support", Putin said during the conference.

That is the only way the countries in the post-Soviet space that are still loyal to the Kremlin will be able to "protect [their] interests on the international scene and drive back anybody with ill intentions", Putin claimed.

Russia is again "concerned about efforts by the Western countries -- and above all the United States -- to create hotbeds of tension in the CIS space," Nikolai Patrushev, the chairman of Russia's Security Council, said in Tashkent on August 19.

"As before, the main tool to promote so-called American-style democracy is the 'colour revolutions' ... That's how we view the events that occurred in 2020 in Belarus, in January 2022 in Kazakhstan and in July in Karakalpakstan in Uzbekistan," Patrushev said, referring to demonstrations that occurred in both places.

Fear-mongering

"Russia is using fear-mongering and talking about nonexistent threats to try to reinstate control over Central Asia and thwart the countries' independent policies," Pulat Akhunov, an Uzbek politician living in Sweden, told Caravanserai.

"Central Asia is slipping out of their hands, and they're panicking," he said.

"The countries in our region are trying to distance themselves from Russia because of Russia's attack on Ukraine."

"At the same time, Putin and his crew aren't hiding their plans to revive the Soviet Union and to incorporate the Central Asian countries into it," he added.

"The West is now actively forging partnerships with the Central Asian countries. This is infuriating Putin," Akhunov said.

While Central Asian countries are stable and the governments are in control, Russia may try to disrupt that situation for its own purposes, he said.

In the past six months, Russia has been consistently running up against the West, including throughout the post-Soviet space and Central Asia, Kamoliddin Rabbimov of Tashkent, a political analyst, pointed out.

"In its global policy, Russia considers the West its philosophical enemy. Thus, Russia feels threatened by all the countries that are co-operating with the West -- primarily the United States -- in any way," he said.

The Russian leadership does not see the Central Asian countries as independent but rather tends to think that they -- including Tajikistan and Uzbekistan -- must honour Russia's interests above all, Rabbimov said.

But when it comes to resources, Russia does not have anything to offer that could keep these countries in the "Kremlin's orbit", he added.

"Keep in mind that over the past six months, all of Russia's global, regional and post-Soviet initiatives have been mired in crisis, especially the CSTO [Collective Security Treaty Organisation] and EEU [Eurasian Economic Union (EEU or EAEU)]."

"A major conflict is brewing within the EEU. Kazakhstan is frustrated with its situation, but for now it can't leave these organisations because the Kremlin could misconstrue that as betrayal," Rabbimov said.

Russia has no options other than to blackmail other countries, including the Central Asian states, and make it clear to them that if they co-operate more closely with the West, they will incur Moscow's wrath, he said.