Blinken's visit to Central Asia prompts more calls for co-operation with West

ALMATY/TASHKENT -- US Secretary of State Antony Blinken during an official visit to Kazakhstan last week stressed his country's desire to deepen its partnership with Central Asia and its readiness to provide the necessary support in reducing dependence on Russia.

Blinken arrived in Astana on February 28 before flying to Tashkent and then on to India to meet with the foreign ministers of G20 countries.

In Astana, Blinken conferred on security and other matters with Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev and other high-ranking officials and also took part in a C5+1 summit of Central Asian and US diplomats.

He also discussed security and other matters with the foreign ministers of all five former Soviet republics of Central Asia.

Blinken in a joint news conference with Kazakh Foreign Minister Mukhtar Tileuberdi on February 28 spoke about the war in Ukraine and the associated growing threat to the security, territorial integrity and economy of countries in the region.

"A big part of the reason why it was so important for countries to stand up against the Russian aggression is not only to help Ukraine defend itself but also to defend those principles."

"Because if we allow them to be violated with impunity, then that does open up the prospect that Russia itself will continue -- will consider further aggression against other countries," Blinken said.

He also thanked the people of Kazakhstan for their assistance to Ukrainians, including in the form of food, clothing, medicines and other humanitarian aid, as well as the setting up of yurts of invincibility, "where Ukrainians can find warmth and respite from the war".

Cutting ties with Russia

Tileuberdi speaking at the news conference lamented the impact of Western anti-Russian sanctions on Kazakhstan, which feels their impact, albeit indirectly, because it trades extensively with its giant neighbour.

"Kazakhstan is a member of [the] Eurasian Economic Union [EEU or EEAU], and we don't have any custom borders between Kazakhstan, Russia and other members of this union."

"So that's why definitely it's sometimes very difficult to manage how we can provide this free trade by products and services between our borders," Tileuberdi said.

He assured his American colleague that Kazakhstan is trying to "avoid any possibilities for evasion of sanctions by Russian or even by any foreign companies".

For his part, Blinken vowed to mitigate the effects of the sanctions, including by accommodating companies doing business with sanctioned Russian companies so they can "cut their ties with Russia" as painlessly as possible, as well as by supporting Central Asian countries in expanding regional trade routes.

As part of this support, he announced that Washington will provide $25 million to the region under the Economic Resilience Initiative.

The funds should help the Central Asian republics to "[expand] regional trade routes... so that they're not reliant just on one country, and then [attract] private sector investment," he said.

Blinken also endorsed reforms announced by Tokayev last March.

"We look forward to seeing the additional concrete steps Kazakhstan will take to realise that agenda, expanding public participation in the political process, increasing government accountability, curbing corruption, introducing presidential term limits, protecting human rights," he said.

Tokayev, in turn, thanked Blinken for "the continuous and firm support of the United States for our independence, territorial integrity and sovereignty", according to Tokayev's press office.

The United States, with a total investment of more than $62 billion, is one of the largest investors in Kazakhstan, noted Tokayev, who expressed hope for expanding the partnership.

An aggressive Moscow

Central Asia needs Western support today more than ever, say analysts.

"Finding itself in global isolation, Russia is trying to enlist the support of ... countries who depend on it," Ruslan Nazarov, an international relations specialist based in Astana, told Caravanserai.

"In doing so, the Kremlin uses coercion and threats."

Moscow is becoming more aggressive and less predictable in its relations with partners.

In an interview in February with Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty's Kazakh service, Radio Azattyq, Temur Umarov, a fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said that the Russian Foreign Ministry is literally dictating to Central Asian countries the states with which they should and should not develop relations.

"[Russian President] Vladimir Putin could wake up today and think that Kazakhstan, too, is now in fact an unfriendly, insufficiently friendly, or some new anti-Russian country, and could also give the order to do the same thing that happened last year on February 24," Umarov said, referring to the invasion of Ukraine.

"No one is safe from this."

Russia has increasingly attempted to use Kazakhstan to solve its economic problems in the face of tightening sanctions -- behavior that is fraught with serious consequences for the Central Asian republic, said Dosym Satpayev, the Almaty-based director of the Risk Assessment Group.

"Thousands of Russian companies and entrepreneurs came to our country last year and they dominate some of our key industries, such as cargo transportation," Satpayev told Caravanserai. "This is a serious threat to Kazakhstan's economic security".

Satpayev is troubled because Russia is "dragging Kazakhstan into its sanctioned economy" and because that trend has potential long-term consequences for Kazakhstan.

Uzbekistan has also been facing Russian pressure.

"Undoubtedly, Antony Blinken's visit to Central Asia, including Uzbekistan, is very important and timely, not only in the context of the ongoing war in Ukraine but also in connection with Moscow's increased pressure on countries in the region," said Alisher Ilkhamov, director of the London-based organisation Central Asia Due Diligence.

He pointed to recent power shortages in Uzbekistan that led to a gas deal with Moscow.

"Moscow immediately exploited the situation by offering its own gas but on oppressive terms," he said, adding, "Moscow aspires to take over Uzbekistan's gas transport infrastructure and its gas exports to China in exchange for Russian gas supplies."

"If these demands from Moscow are satisfied, Uzbekistan will lose a significant share of its sovereignty, which is already insubstantial in terms of its relationship with Russia."

Western co-operation

Western countries' interest in Central Asia has intensified amid the war in Ukraine, and they are striving to expand co-operation, especially in the energy sector, noted Satpayev the Almaty-based pundit.

"Blinken's recent visit to Astana, as well as the previous regular meetings of officials from Western countries and Kazakhstan, is another indication that they are interested in partnering with us," he said.

This interest is mutual, according to Nazarov the international relations specialist.

Co-operation with the United States and European Union (EU) in the energy sector will help Kazakhstan in particular expand its presence in the EU's energy market, where demand for Kazakh oil is growing, he said.

Kazakhstan at the end of February made its first delivery of 20,000 tonnes of oil to Germany via the Druzhba pipeline.

Central Asian countries will ultimately distance themselves from Russia while simultaneously deepening and expanding co-operation with the West, said Nazarov.

"Russia was previously unable to offer the region any attractive prospects, but now it has become a downright toxic, troublesome partner," he said.

"Russia has considered Central Asia counties to be its zone of interest since time immemorial ... But when Russia's unjustified aggression against Ukraine began, relations started to change," said Nigara Khidoyatova, a Uzbek political analyst living in the United States.

"That's why the US State Department thought it was the right time to send its head, Antony Blinken, to make a show of support for these countries and to say that the US may be a better ally."

"During his visit, Blinken ... expressed unwavering US support for the independence, territorial integrity and sovereignty of the countries of Central Asia."

"This visit has become a very significant landmark and has given new impetus to the development of relations with the US," she said.